Strikeforce: Tate vs. Rousey Betting Corner

Not since Cyborg vs. Carano has a female fight generated this kind of hype, yet here we are with a major female MMA bout. There has been a tremendous war of words between many fighters on this card and some of these fights could be straight-up magical. This is also one of the best betting cards we’ve seen in a long time, so let’s be sharp and hit a few of these gems for all they’re worth.

Below is a list of my comparison betting odds, valid props, and my general confidence level in my handiwork for that fight. Now, onto the fights!

Ronda Rousey -260

Meisha Tate +200

Props: Rousey by Submission, Fight Starts 3rd Round, Tate by Decision

Confidence: Moderate

The war of words has been fierce but the fight itself should be even fiercer as Ronda Rousey faces Meisha Tate. In a fight between judokas and freestyle wrestlers of the same size, the judokas tend to fare better in the MMA world due to their superior core strength and more complete grappling game.  Considering neither girl has much to offer with striking, this puts the fight firmly in the dangerous judoka’s hands, and she’s proven she doesn’t care to show mercy. Overall, Tate’s best chance is to use footwork and avoid the ground game entirely, or work token takedowns to keep ahead on the scorecards. Betting wise, you have to give Tate some credit with being the champ and more experienced fighter at this weight, but can’t ignore Rousey’s submission game. This is an interesting fight betting wise, as Rousey has basically talked her line into something unrealistic. Hit the above three props, which should all come in at sweet positives and covers every realistic outcome.

Paul Daley -130

Kazuo Misaki EV

Props: None

Confidence: Low

An interesting fight with far too many variables for my liking, as Paul Daley faces Japanese MMA legend Kazuo Misaki. Oddly enough, Daley isn’t the head case in this fight, and while I’d normally have him losing this, I can’t ignore Misaki’s total meltdown over the last several years. Between injuries, odd feuds with fight promotions legal troubles and a lackluster fight schedule, we have no idea where Misaki will be at. Compound this with this fight being his debut at Welterweight and fighting outside of the US, and it’s a recipe for disaster for Misaki. I wouldn’t bet much, but a little money on Daley here could pay off if the line looks anything like I think it will.

Josh Thomson -200

KJ Noons +160

Props: Thompson by Submission

Confidence: Low

Speaking of pathetic fight schedules, Josh Thomson makes his way back into the Strikeforce cage after another year off, taking on KJ Noons. I will say that Thomson tends to function well with ring rust, but the fact remains that he shouldn’t be taking years off at a time if he’s looking to get back into the title picture. His opponent has had similar issues with his dedication to the sport, but Noons has come out to fight every time and had some classic bouts in Thomson’s away time. Overall, its Noons continued lack of wrestling ability that will ruin him here, as Thomson can easily put him to the mat at any time.  While a decision is an obvious choice here, I think Thomson can get enough done on the mat to set up a submission on Noons during a transition. This prop should be at spectacular value due to Noons history of avoiding the sub, but I think his time runs out against Thomson here.

Lumumba Sayers -280

Scott Smith +210

Props: Fight Ends Inside 1st Round, Sayers by KO

Confidence: Very High

A golden betting opportunity presents itself here, as we see Scott Smith move one step closer to retirement. While the majority of fighters in the sport have bowed out somewhat gracefully, there are a few that hang on far too long. With Smith’s last several performances being poor affairs, he moves back to Middleweight into a fight against yet another power striker. No one moves up in weight for any good reason in MMA and Smith will be no different here, as cutting weight was never his issue. Sayers is a crippling striker and I can’t see a deteriorated and dejected Smith lasting beyond a token exchange here.  Hit the above props and straight line if it’s juicy enough, and cash in on this one time play.

Sarah Kaufman -300

Alexis Davis +220

Props: Fight Starts 2nd Round

Confidence: High

A rematch from both fighters’ distant past, vicious striker Sarah Kaufman will face sub grappler Alexis Davis in a number one contenders match. Davis has had moderate success in her career as a grappling specialist in the 135lb division, having beaten many lower-tier fighters, but coming up short against big names like LaRosa and Bayzler. The issue here is that while female sub grapplers are a dime a dozen, female professional-level strikers are not. As such, Davis will have a real issue dealing with Kaufman yet again, while Kaufman needs only brush up on her takedown defense as she’s done with every fight.  Kaufman could finish this fight, but Davis is smart enough not to run face first into battle, and I think the finish happens later, if at all. If you can’t find a Starts 2nd prop at -160 or better, leave it alone and stick with your straight line.

Pat Healy -130

Caros Fodor EV

Props: Fight Goes Distance/Over

Confidence: Moderate

If you’re an old school fan, you just have to love Pat Healy. Having spent the majority of his life inside a cage or ring, he’s one of the most underrated fighters in the game today, but is starting to get his due in Strikeforce. His next opponent is a Strikeforce made product that’s been on the rise for some time, but Caros Fodor will take a major step up in competition here. The part of this fight that makes it tougher to handicap is the way Fodor took care of Justin Wilcox. If we’d seen how he dealt with Wilcox high-level wrestling, we’d have a lot more to go on here, but we’re in the dark concerning his progression in the grappling game. Overall I think Healy’s experience and wide variety of skills will see him through this, but I think the Over may be the safest bet.

Conor Huen -185

Ryan Couture +145

Props: Fight Goes Distance/Over

Confidence: High

While they never make it to the top of the division, it’s still nice to see a fighter who’s just in it for the fun. Having had his arm broken and twisted in his last fight, Conor Huen still took home the decision, and after healing up, he’s ready to go again. This year, his opponent will be Ryan Couture, whom has had a slow progression in the sport but looks to work his way into true pro status. This is a rough match-up for Couture, who has shown he’s not exactly a chip off the old block. Huen is going to be the better striker and wrestler of the two, and I don’t think Couture’s flimsy bottom game is going to save him from the slick grappler. Huen isn’t a strong finisher either though, and hitting the Over should cover you from multiple angles in this fight.

Tags: Alexis Davis, Betting Corner, Caros Fodor, Conor Huen, Josh Thomson, Kazuo Misaki, KJ Noons, Lumumba Sayers, Meisha Tate, Mike Hammersmith, Mixed Martial Arts, MMA, MMA Betting, pat healy, Paul Daley, Ronda Rousey, Ryan Couture, Sarah Kaufman, Scott Smith, Strikeforce, Strikeforce: Tate vs. Rousey

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