UFC on Fox 3 Fight Breakdown – Rousimar Palhares vs. Alan Belcher
Another breakdown from UFC on Fox 3, this time, submission specialist Rousimar Palhares squares off with the well-rounded Alan Belcher Saturday night. Both fighters are on three fight winning streaks, but one of them will step into the rarified air of title contention with a victory. The loser faces a lengthy climb back out of the middle of the pack.
Rousimar Palhares will bend, twist, pry, or chew your leg off if given the opportunity. He has some of the nastiest submissions in the sport and his knee-bars and heel-hooks are especially filthy. He’s won six of his fourteen fights by heel-hook and that’s especially remarkable since people know to watch out for it. His nickname is “Toquinho” which is Portuguese for tree stump, and the nickname fits. Standing in at only five foot eight, he’s built like a stump. He’s not afraid to stand and trade either; however, he’s shown little more than loading up on one shot at a time in his standup game.
If Palhares is to win Saturday night, he’d want it to play out like this. First, he’s going to want to take Alan Belcher down. Once he takes him down, he’ll need to be smart and look for openings to hurt Belcher and eventually spring a submission on him. When Palhares grabs for a submission, he gets it. He’s so incredibly strong; there is no defending once he gets position. Palhares would be happy to take this fight down early, and submit Belcher in the first round.
That said, finishing Alan Belcher is easier said than done. Alan has only been stopped three times in his 23 fight career, and only once by submission. He’s a tremendously well-rounded fighter who in his 17 victories has submitted seven and knocked out eight. He’s won five of his last six in the UFC and his lone loss was a hotly contested split decision loss to Yoshihiro Akiyama at UFC 100, a fight that won Fight of the Night honors. This fight will be a very important one for him, so he’ll be ready to go and likely looking for a knockout.
If Saturday night provides a victory for Alan Belcher, here’s what likely will lead to it. Alan Belcher should try to keep the fight standing, where he holds a decisive advantage. Belcher has great kicks, knees and can box well. He is also well versed in submissions, but why play that game with Palhares? Likely Alan will attempt to use his length advantage to keep the fight standing, and land shots to try to hurt Palhares. He has a six-inch height advantage and a four-inch reach advantage. He should use both to punish Palhares standing, and stay out-of-the-way of Palhares overhand rights and lefts. If Belcher can keep the fight standing, he’ll win pretty easily.
This fight should definitely be a very strategic battle between two very talented fighters. Find out who Josh is picking by heading over to his UFC on Fox 3 Bold Predictions.
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