MMA Matchmaking: Rankings versus Ratings
What a fight, the final bell has rung on yet another MMA main event, the opponents have hugged and spoken words of praise to each other and the score cards are read out loud to a packed audience. The champion has once again retained his title, and will move onto another match-up in a few months. Who will he face though?
In most sports, that isn’t even a question; sometimes plotted out months in advance or even stuck into a rigid bracket. MMA isn’t most sports though, with little surety about future opponents, and often the matchmaking takes odd turns that neither the fans nor the fighters want. Let’s take a look at the UFC matchmaking process, how it could work, how it sometimes fails to work, and what could be done about it.
Rankings vs. Ratings:
Several times a year, we’re treated to a title fight from one of the long-standing or seemingly unstoppable champions of their divisions: GSP, Anderson Silva and Jon Jones. These fights are, hands down, the largest of the year and with good reason; as they bring in not only hardcore fans, but the casual Buffalo Wild Wings crowd that only tune in once Sports Center or Sports Illustrated gets behind a bout. These fights are huge productions, carefully crafted and set in motion with millions of dollars invested in commercials and lead-up shows to get the public behind the bout. The champion is the champion and deserves this attention when he’s ready to step into the cage, but what about the challenger? Can the casual viewer tell us anything about the man who will stand opposite our undisputed master of the division? That they can’t.
What a casual fan of this sport assumes is that the man facing the champion is the most deserving, because, well he’s facing the champ right? The difference between casual fans and hardcore fans is that the casual ones can be sold on anything, while the hardcore fan knew the score well before the match was ever made. Yet our current matchmaking process has little to do with legitimate contenders and more to do with the stories and salability of opponents to the mass public.
A great example of this situation was the recent Light Heavyweight fight that ultimately fell apart, pitting Jon Jones against Dan Henderson. Henderson was given the bout after a questionable decision win over former champion Mauricio “Shogun” Rua, on the basis of his exciting back and forth battles and name recognition. Yet many cited the fact that LHW contender Alexander Gustafsson was riding a 5-fight win streak following a win over former title challenger Thiago Silva, putting him in a great position for a title challenge himself.
Any fight analyst will tell you that both men; Henderson and Gustafsson, had roughly the same chance of victory in a fight with Jones, yet the more deserving fighter was passed up for the more marketable one. Right and wrong depending on which side of that equation you’re on, and there’s historical precedence that shows the wisdom and folly of both methods.
Pros and Cons of Ranking systems:
When looking at the concept of strict rankings, it’s easy to draw a comparison to boxing. With all of their belts and sanctioning bodies, boxing uses a strict ranking system that requires its champions to face number one contenders in what are referred to as “mandatories”. This is done for a variety of reasons, but namely to allow up and coming fighters to shoulder into a title fight on merit, rather than the whim of promoters. This is only a theory, and I’ll get back to how this actually works out later.
Jim Miller never got a title shot
Adopting this method within MMA would be monumental for some of the hard-nosed fighters in each division. Famously men like Jim Miller and Jon Fitch have been forced to put together seven or eight wins in a row before being considered for title shots, being continuously passed over by larger stars with smaller win-streaks. This is surely disheartening for these men who spend years working their way sideways in a division rather than upwards.
Conversely, having a sport based solely on ranking systems means a lot of rematches and many of the least entertaining title fights have come about from this method. GSP vs. Dan Hardy and Anderson Silva vs. Thales Leites are two of the most notorious snorefests in MMA title history, and were born from number one contenders. On the flip-side, Velasquez vs. Lesnar and Edgar vs. Penn were similar situations that made for title shifts and spectacular fights.
An interesting point about using ranking systems can be taken from boxing though, and fit nicely into the current MMA landscape. The reason boxers drop titles and change divisions is due to these mandatory fights, as the money to engage in a super fight in a division above them is more enticing than small money rematch against an inferior opponent. Perhaps having GSP face Jon Fitch for a second or third time to a limited PPV market would change his mind about a fight with Anderson Silva at Cowboy Stadium?
Pros and Cons of Matchmaking:
When their heart is in the right place, matchmakers put together exciting and competitive bouts that will make both men look like stars. A look through the FOTN winners often shows mid-card battlers who tore each other to pieces in their bouts, and where each man’s stock rose for the effort. With a balanced approach, men like Clay Guida and Matt Brown can fight their hearts out and never be shown the door, while incoming talent can be matched fairly and may the best man win.
At worst, matchmaking can be used vindictively, or to dash a fighter’s career against the rocks in favor of pushing a potential star. For every rising star, there’s a 0-2 UFC fighter that was used to launch them into the mid-cards, and often these men could just have easily been launched themselves with the right opponents. Talented fighters like Edward Faaloloto and Kyle Bradley were essentially eaten alive rather than given a fighting chance to excel in the UFC, making them far less marketable for the remainder of their careers.
A pure matchmaking formula allows for the opportunity for ousted champions to turn around after one fight and get a title shot, for better or worse. In some regards, these men are too far ahead of their peers to be bothered working their way back up through the division, but occasionally men are rushed back into title contention when others are far more deserving of the shot. A pure matchmaking approach is also responsible for the poison we know as immediate rematches, which jammed up the Lightweight division for literal years to no real resolution.
In closing, it’s hard to say that the UFCs current approach isn’t effective. They’ve put together the lion’s share of the sports most memorable fights and handle their matchmaking duties responsibly under most circumstances. It’s also obvious that some policies need to be enforced across the board concerning matchmaking, and that dialogue between fighters, management and matchmakers could be opened up to avoid burying newcomers before they get a chance to start. As for title fights, there doesn’t seem to be a clear road to follow as the sport evolves and the playing field widens. In that regard, showing your pleasure or displeasure with PPV buys puts the power in your hands and might shape an MMA division more than you think.
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About the Author (Author Profile)
I'm a 20+ year veteran of martial arts and a fan of MMA since UFC 1, when my world was thrown on its head by the budding sport. I'm obsessive in the pursuit of martial abilities and have competed across the country in everything from Vale Tudo to archery to Scottish broadsword. Once my body broke down, I picked up a pen and went in the direction of writing. I specialize in betting advice, predictions, and I'm a walking encyclopedia of MMA trivia. I own a cafe in Exeter, NH called Hammersmith Sandwich Company and write out of my office between customers.Subscribe
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