The UFC 168 Fight Report
One of the most highly anticipated rematches in the sports history will take place this Saturday at UFC 168. Chris Weidman looks to prove his win was no fluke, facing the Spider for the right to keep the middleweight strap. We also have a replay of a pivotal Strikeforce bout, as Ronda Rousey looks to take Miesha Tate’s other arm home. We’ve got a full card, so let’s dig into the madness below.
Chris Weidman vs Anderson Silva: An interesting rematch of one of the most bizarre moments in MMA history, Chris Weidman looks to keep the belt so long held by Anderson Silva. There are two sides to this fight and making a prediction here: What actually happened and what we can expect to happen.
First off, Weidman won. We all know this, but the level of “accomplishment” differs depending on who you ask. Looking at this in a pure analytical sense, Weidman hit a single takedown in the first and had a stalemate on the mat, but was clearly out-gunned standing. While not much occurred in that first round on the feet, that was really the point: Weidman couldn’t connect on anything and Silva landed a few potshots to make his presence known. The second round played out very much how the first ended, save for a left hook on a Silva while his neck and spine were at full flexion. This says less about Weidman’s KO power than it does about how utterly awful of a defensive move this was, as anything landing on Silva at that moment would have flattened him. In short, Weidman had two threats in the first fight, one legitimate and one that Silva inflicted upon himself.
This becomes difficult to cap because we have no idea what Silva is planning or what Weidman is ready for. In a grappling match, I like Weidman’s chances to win from top, but it’s the standing segment that makes this dicey. Silva isn’t getting younger, yet his power in like no one alive, and accuracy has never been an issue. The blueprint for this is Silva vs Sonnen 1 and 2, where he stopped the clowning all together and annihilated Sonnen in the second. Failing a hook from Weidman here, I can’t see Silva missing the mark too many times standing, eventually putting Weidman down and out inside three rounds.
Ronda Rousey vs Miesha Tate: A rematch slightly less intriguing than the main event, Ronda Rousey will look to repeat her previous efforts, taking on grappling specialist Miesha Tate. Prior to TUF, I thought Tate would have this in the bag second time around, as Rousey is still an incomplete fighter with holes that aren’t likely to be filled. However, it became clear on TUF that Tate has loss this fight before it even happens, being clearly terrified of Rousey, and likely with good reason. Tate is the better fighter, but needs to be slick and fearless to pull this off. Failing that, it’s another armbar for Rousey as she imposes her will and hustled Tate within a minute.
Josh Barnett vs Travis Browne: A pair of heavyweights that actually do the division justice, Josh Barnett will look for his second win in the Octagon since his return, while Browne will look to capitalize on his career-defining moment. Browne is a fun fighter, but has never been anything more than a massive heavyweight with a good deal of agility. With a fairly simplistic attack pattern and no where near the toolbox to deal with Barnett on the mat, I can’t see this going too many ways that favor Browne. Look for Barnett to walk forward and ruin Browne’s use of range, clubbing the younger fighter on the inside and eventually hitting a takedown for some vintage Barnett GnP, scoring a first or second round TKO.
Jim Miller vs Fabricio Camoes: A fight pitting two flagging fighters together, Jim Miller will look to keep afloat against the multi-faceted Fabricio Camoes. I like Camoes for his functional judo game and grappling chops, but time and again, Miller has outworked the best grapplers in the division. Lacking the dynamite needed to drop the gritty Miller, I see this turning into a grappling bout that Camoes can’t win in the long term, eventually being ground down by Miller’s sharper positioning and ground and pound for a decision win.
Dustin Poirier vs Diego Brandao: The show-stealing fight is our UFC 168 PPV opener, as Dustin Poirier and Diego Brandao look to keep their title hopes alive. Brandao is one of the best first round fighters in the division, but also fades incredibly fast, making Poirier’s game plan a no-brainer. Look for a smartly defending Poirier to use tight boxing to keep Brandao on his toes, turning the up the juice steadily throughout the fight to score a late TKO.
Chris Leben vs Uriah Hall: A cross-roads fight for both men, Chris Leben will take on an enigmatic foe in Uriah Hall. With Leben, we’re getting a natural fighter whose body is breaking down late in a hard career, while Hall appears to be the greatest gym fighter to have ever lived, but has badly shit the bed in his last two fights. A pressure fight is exactly what Hall doesn’t need and all that Leben can offer, yet I like Hall to fight a bit smarter than in previous outings, even if he isn’t comfortable enough to let loose. A smart game of outside strikes and takedowns allow Hall to put Leben out to pasture, all while pissing off the boss with a weak victory by decision.
Gleison Tibau vs Michael Johnson: A lightweight battle with two fighters chipping away at the middle of the division, this all comes down to how much Johnson can improve and how much fuel Tibau has in the tank. Johnson is a bit inconsistent in his performances, but when he’s on, there are very few strikers who can match his fleet-footed approach and output. Tibau can’t well match him in the striking department, but his mat work is miles and away better, and with the bulk to force the issue, this one should play right into Tibau’s hands. Johnson gets on his bicycle early but Tibau traps him against the fence time and again, winning a decision based on control and takedowns.
Dennis Siver vs Manny Gamburyan: A fight that should end in horrific knockout, Manny Gamburyan brings his chin up judo style against the laser-accurate counter punching of Dennis Siver. Can you guess which one is going to sleep? This is a horrendous match-up for Manny, as he’s not fast enough or dynamic enough to hit takedowns, and unless he can poleax Siver with an overhand, he’ll be picked to pieces and finished in short order.
John Howard vs Siyar Bahadurzada: A return to Welterweight for Howard sees him meet Middle Eastern nightmare Siyar Bahadurzada in an explosive contest. Howard is a jack-of-all-trades fighter, but I don’t like his pacing here against Siyar, as he tends to spend too much time inside the pocket. Siyar’s best offense all comes inside a short range and if Howard isn’t quick in his engagements, a counter shot could put him to sleep straight away. Look for Howard to get at this early, but Siyar plants one on the button at the tail end of the first round, putting Howard down in a heap.
About the Author (Author Profile)
I'm a 20+ year veteran of martial arts and a fan of MMA since UFC 1, when my world was thrown on its head by the budding sport. I'm obsessive in the pursuit of martial abilities and have competed across the country in everything from Vale Tudo to archery to Scottish broadsword. Once my body broke down, I picked up a pen and went in the direction of writing. I specialize in betting advice, predictions, and I'm a walking encyclopedia of MMA trivia. I own a cafe in Exeter, NH called Hammersmith Sandwich Company and write out of my office between customers.Subscribe
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